Modeling of Poverty Levels on the Island of Sumatra Using Spatial Autoregressive

Poverty Rate, Moran Index, Spatial Autoregressive

Authors

  • Rahmadeni Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
  • Hotmarito Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
  • Elfira Safitri Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
  • Rahmawati Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
  • Rado Yendra Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
  • Muhammad Marizal Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau – Indonesia
June 3, 2026

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The purpose of this research is to determine the relationship between the poverty level in another province that is adjacent to the Sumatra island. The data was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The method used is Spatial Autoregressive (SAR). This model shows the relationship between areas that are close to each other and also describes how influential a causal factor variable is to the poverty rate. Based on the Moran Index, it is shown that adjacent provinces have similar poverty scores and Human Development Index (HDI) values. In the model, a significant variable was obtained: Mean Years of School (MYS) and Human Development.