Risk Identification and Prioritization in Hospital Construction Projects in Disaster-Prone Areas: A Contractor-Based Probability–Impact Matrix Approach

Construction risk management, Hospital construction, Disaster-prone areas, Probability–Impact Matrix, Contractor-based risk assessment, Risk prioritization

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January 20, 2026
January 21, 2026

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Hospital construction projects are inherently complex due to strict functional requirements, advanced building systems, and high safety standards. These challenges are further intensified in disaster-prone areas, where environmental uncertainty and external disturbances significantly increase construction risks. Despite the critical role of contractors in managing construction-phase risks, empirical studies focusing on contractor-based risk assessment in hospital projects within hazard-exposed environments remain limited. This study aims to identify and prioritize construction risks in a hospital construction project located in a disaster-prone area using a contractor-based Probability–Impact Matrix (PIM) approach. The research was conducted at the CT Arsa Hospital construction project in Palu City, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, a region with high exposure to seismic and environmental hazards. A qualitative case study design was employed, involving structured interviews with experienced project personnel, expert validation, and semi-quantitative probability–impact assessment. The results indicate that the most critical construction risks are associated with delays in material procurement, shortages of skilled labor, design changes during construction, extreme weather conditions, and site-related technical uncertainties. These risks are clustered in the high to very high-risk categories, highlighting their significant potential impact on construction performance. The findings demonstrate that the Probability–Impact Matrix provides a practical and transparent framework for prioritizing construction risks under conditions of uncertainty and limited data availability.