Evaluation of Straw Recycling Programs Based on Evidence-Prospect Theory
Downloads
Farmland straw is one of the important agricultural resources, and its rational utilization is related to the green development of agriculture. In order to promote the utilization of straw resources, the rapid increase of market enterprises, the current choice of straw treatment methods is relatively rich, so it is particularly important to determine the appropriate comprehensive utilization of straw. To reduce the uncertainty and subjectivity of expert evaluation opinions, this paper uses the method of combining DS evidence theory and prospect theory to analyze the four methods of direct return, straw silage, incineration power generation and pyrolysis gasification, and constructs a clearer and more objective method evaluation system from the five dimensions of resources, technology, environment, economy and society. The DS evidence theory was used to integrate the information of multiple indicators, summarize and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each scheme, evaluate and rank, and finally select the best treatment scheme. The results showed that pyrolysis gasification was the optimal solution for straw recycling, followed by incineration for power generation, followed by direct return to the field, and finally straw silage. The conclusion is that this method can improve the objectivity of the evaluation results to a certain extent, and put forward valuable suggestions for promoting the development of straw comprehensive utilization and sustainable agricultural development.
Bi Yuyun, Wang Yajing, Gao Chunyu. Quantity and regional distribution of major straw resources in China[J]. Agricultural Mechanization Research, 2010, 32(03): 1-7.
Chen Yanan，Zhang Changhua， Liang Yongjiang..at al. Corn straw composting in the field and in situ fertilizer effect [J]．Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology 2014, 25(12): 3507-3513.
G. Z. FANG JingYun, PIAO ShiLong, C. o. E. S. CHEN AnPing Department of Ecology , P. U. Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Beijing 100871, China. Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China,1981―2000 [J]Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences). 2007, 09): 1341-1350.
Chang Qin. Let more crop straw "turn grass into gold"[N]. People's Daily,2023-9-15(18). https://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/jlssxsxnyxdh/zcyt/202309/t20230915_2518771.
Jia Fan, Liu Qingsong , Jiang Da. Environmental effects of different uses of crop straw [J]. Agricultural Technology and Equipment, 2013, 10): 4-6+8.
Wang Ailing, Gao Wangsheng, Hong Chunmei. Study on the ecological effects of straw burning and direct returning to the field in irrigated areas of North China [J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2003, 01): 148-150.
Guo Dejie, Luo Jia, Ma Yan. Current Situation and Development Strategy of Comprehensive Utilization of Straw in Jiangsu Province[J]. Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences, 2022, 50(03): 248-252.
Wen Yuan, Jiang Ningning, Li Zhe. Resource treatment methods and measures of rural solid waste[J]. Heilongjiang Environmental Bulletin, 2024, 37(09): 120-122.
Ren Changyu , Xiang Wanlin. Reflections on the impact of straw burning on ecological environment and resource utilization[J]. Rural Economy, 2015, 04): 124-126.
Dai Yaping. Survey of Biological Straw Treatment Technology[J]. Smart Agriculture Guide, 2021, 1(20): 10-12.
Feng Xiaohui. Popularization of comprehensive utilization technology of corn straw[J]. World Tropical Agriculture Information, 2023, 05): 25-27.
Liu Yitong, Zhang Shuping, Liu Xinzhi. Study on Hydrothermal Pretreatment of Corn Straw and Its Effect on Pyrolysis Process[J]. Energy Research and Utilization, 2023, 02): 8-13.
Zhang Jiaqi, Yan Tingwu, Jiang Xin. Value Perception, Environmental Responsibility Awareness and Farmers' Straw Resource Utilization: A Multi-group Analysis Based on the EAtended Technology Acceptance Model[J]. China Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2021, 42(04): 99-107
Yang Caiyan, Qi Zhenhong, Huang Weihong,, et al. The Influence of Benefit Perception on Farmers' Adoption of Green Production Technologies: A Heterogeneity Analysis Based on Different Production Links[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2021, 30(02): 448-458.
Qiu Huangaung , Su Liufang, Zhang Yitong, et al. Risk Appetite, Risk Perception and Farmers' Adoption of Conservation Tillage Technology [J]. China Rural Economy, 2020, 07): 59-79.
Wang Shuai, Gao Chunyu, Bi Yuyun, et al. Research on Policy Guarantee for Comprehensive Utilization of Crop Straw: A Text Analysis Based on the Implementation Plan of the Comprehensive Utilization of Crop Straw Project in 61 Counties of 24 Provinces[J]. China Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2022, 43(12): 66-74.
Liu Rui, Wan Chuyun, Huang Qian, et al. Problems and Development Prospects of Straw Pretreatment Technology[J]. Environmental Science and Technology, 2009, 32(05): 88-91.
Zhu Liqun, Qi Jun , Guo Panpan . Economic Analysis of Different Utilization Methods of Straw Resources Based on Cost and Benefit[J]. JiangAi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2016, 28(02): 106-111.
Wang Hongyan , Wang Yajing, Wang Daolong , et al. Emergy analysis of straw biogas project based on different utilization scenarios of biogas fertilizer: A case study of Gengguantun in Qingxian County, Hebei Province[J]. [J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2016, 35(10): 2814-2823.
Zhang Xiaoqing , Wang Zifan , Can Muyou, et al. Analysis of crop straw yield and comprehensive utilization in China[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2021, 26(09): 30-41.
Zhu Wen. Research on the evaluation of straw energy utilization potential and utilization mode in Jiangsu Province[D].Nanjing Forestry University,2016.
X. e. Wang, K. Li, J. Song, et al. Integrated assessment of straw utilization for energy production from views of regional energy, environmental and socioeconomic benefits[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 190(787-798).
Xu Zhaopeng. Research on optimization and improvement path of regional straw comprehensive utilization mode[D].Shandong University,2021.
Song Baiyu. Analysis and evaluation of comprehensive utilization of crop straw in Shandong Province[D].Shandong Agricultural University,2024.
L. Meng, A. Alengebawy, P. Ai, et al. Techno-Economic Assessment of Three Modes of Large-Scale Crop Residue Utilization Projects in China[J]. Energies, 2020, 13(14):
M. Sun, X. Xu, C. Wang, et al. Environmental burdens of the comprehensive utilization of straw: Wheat straw utilization from a life-cycle perspective[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 259(prepublish): 120702-120702.
H. Xing, L. Song , Z. Yang. An Evidential Prospect Theory Framework in Hesitant Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making[J]. Symmetry, 2019, 11(12): 1467.
Liu Fei, Ma Ping, Yang Ming, et al. Research on Credibility Quantification of CompleA Simulation System[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 2007, 01): 1-3.
Z. Zhang, S. Yang , Y. Liu. Intelligent evaluation of coal mine solid filling effect using fuzzy logic and improved D-S evidence theory[J]. Scientific reports, 2025, 15(1): 5750
S. Feng, L. Tang, M. Huang, et al. Integrating D-S evidence theory and multiple deep learning frameworks for time series prediction of air quality[J]. Scientific reports, 2025, 15(1): 5971
S. X. Zhang, J. H. Lin, L. Su, et al. pDHS-DSET: Prediction of DNase I hypersensitive sites in plant genome using DS evidence theory[J]. ANALYTICAL BIOCHEMISTRY, 2019, 564(54-63)
Jin liuqian, Fang Xin, Xu Yang. Interval Multi-attribute Decision Making Method Based on Evidence-based Reasoning and Prospect Theory[J]. Fuzzy Systems and Mathematical Sciences, 2017, 31(06): 124-131.
Liu Tongli, Zhao Lixin, Meng Haibo, et al. EAploration and Optimization of Evaluation Method of Straw Energy Utilization Technology[J]. Environmental Engineering, 2020, 38(08): 195-200.
X. Deng, X. Zheng, X. Su, et al. An evidential game theory framework in multi-criteria decision making process[J]. Applied mathematics computation. 2014, 244(783-793).
J. Y. Wu, L. S. Li, F. S. Shi, et al. A two-stage power system frequency security multi-level early warning model with DS evidence theory as a combination strategy[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS, 2022, 143.
J.-B. Yang, Y.-M. Wang, D.-L. Xu, et al. The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties[J]. European journal of operational research.2006, 171(1): 309-343.
P. Liu, M. Shen, F. Teng, et al. Double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic entropy-based TODIM approach using evidential theory[J]. Information Sciences, 2021, 547(223-243).
T. X. Wang, H. X. Li, X. Z. Zhou, et al. A prospect theory-based three-way decision model[J]. KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, 2020, 203.
H. D. Zhang, Y. Liu, D. Selang, et al. A three-way decision with prospect-regret theory under Pythagorean fuzzy environments[J]. APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING, 2024, 167.
R. Lili, W. Lei , L. Peide. Supermarket fresh food suppliers evaluation and selection with multigranularity unbalanced hesitant fuzzy linguistic information based on prospect theory and evidential theory [J]International Journal of Intelligent Systems. 2021, 37(3): 1931-1971.
R. Kavya , J. Christopher. Interpretable systems based on evidential prospect theory for decision-making[J]. APPLIED INTELLIGENCE, 2023, 53(2): 1640-1665.
Cheng Qipeng, Wang Qingyun, Luo Laichao, et al. Estimation of wheat and corn straw resources and analysis of nutrient utilization potential in Henan Province[J]. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment, 2024, 41(04): 846-855.
Li Xingfang, Li Gang, Han Mei, et al. Distribution of crop straw resources and their resource evaluation in Henan Province[J] Science in Henan. 2011, 29(12): 1464-1469.
Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The National Straw Comprehensive Utilization Site Promotion Conference was held in Xinxiang City. 2024-06-17. https://www.henan.gov.cn/2024/06-17/3009219.html.
Henan Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment. The problem of straw burning is prominent, and these 7 counties (cities, districts) have been interviewed!. 2024-10-08. https://www.henan.gov.cn/2024/10-08/3070809.html.
Zhao Aixue , Zhangshuai, Dai Ruixi, et al. Comprehensive utilization potential, obstacles and countermeasures of green loss reduction of corn straw[J]. Agricultural Outlook, 2023, 19(08): 70-75.
D. Kai-Ineman , A. Tversky. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk [J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2): 363-391.
