Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on The Export Profitability of Strawberries: Evidence from The San Quintín Valley, 2023
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This article examines the impact of USD/MXN nominal exchange rate fluctuations on the operating profitability of strawberry producers in San Quintin, Baja California, during the 2022-2023 agricultural cycle. Using a mixed-methods design that combines econometric analysis of secondary data and structured surveys of 20 agricultural entrepreneurs, we assess the exchange rate pass-through on profit margins, controlling for adverse climatic conditions. Results reveal a significant negative correlation (β = -0.45, p < 0.05) between peso appreciation and crop profitability, amplified by yield and quality reductions linked to El Niño. 65% of producers reported declining profitability, with 75% identifying exchange rate volatility as a critical driver. We discuss implications for financial risk management, the need for currency hedging instruments, and targeted subsidy policies. This study contributes to agribusiness finance literature and risk management in export-dependent agricultural regions.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Mata-Bojórquez, I., Hernández-Celestino, N.Y., Morales-Zamorano, L.A., Holguín-Moreno, O.
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