Country Risk Premium as an Indicator of Investment Attractiveness and the Russian-Ukrainian War Effect
Downloads
One of the significant areas of financial management is investment management. To assess the investment attractiveness of a country, a sufficient number of different indicators are known, which is determined by the complexity of the concept under consideration. The assessment can be made on the basis of long-term statistics, e.g., of attracted foreign capital. It is also possible to use a composition of several statistical data reflecting different aspects related to investments. Considering the problem, along with the above approaches, it would like to have an indicator that would reflect the current state of the investment process, that is, based on short-term (day, week, month) data. It should not be composite, so as not to introduce additional error into the calculation. This article is devoted to the presentation of just such an indicator for investment attractiveness of a country, called the Country Risk Premium, CRP, which is well-known in business valuation. The article describes experience in calculating the СRP for different countries. The influence of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the magnitude of this indicator is demonstrated. The article is intended for financial consultants, appraisers, teachers, and scientists in the fields of finance, investment and valuation, as well as for specialists in related fields of economics.
Boer, F. P. (1999). The Valuation of Technology, Business and Financial issues in R&D. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter, 11-26.
Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset, 3rd Edition. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Ehrhardt, M. C. and Brigham, E. F. (2016). Corporate Finance: A Focused Approach, 6rd Edition. New York, South-Western College Pub.
European House – Ambrosetti. (2024). Global Attractiveness Index. https://www.ambrosetti.eu/en/news/global-attractiveness-index-2022-germany-united-states-and-hong-kong-are-the-countries-with-the-highest-attractiveness-italy-is-at-19th-place/
Fed, The. 2025. Federal Reserve Board — Home. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/
Fraser Institute. (2024). Investment Attractiveness Index https://composite-indicators.jrc.ec.europa.eu/explorer/explorer/indices/iai/investment-attractiveness-index
Ibbotson, R. G. (1996). Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation 1996 Yearbook: Market Results for 1926–1995 (Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation (Sbbi) Yearbook. Chicago: The Associates.
IVS. (2024). International Valuation Standards. Effective 31 January 2025. International Valuation Standards Council.
Lowy Institute. (2024). Asia Power Index. https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/economic-relationships/regional-investment-ties/investment-attractiveness/
Sharp, W. F., Alexander, G. J., and Bailey, J. V. (1998). Investments, 6th Ed., Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Trifonov, N. (2010). Modern condition: market value or user value? 23-26.06.2010. 17th Annual ERES Conference. Book of Abstracts and Programme (p. 218). Milano, SDA Bocconi.
Trifonov, N. (2021a). Development of the risk accumulation method for calculating the capitalization rate, Ekonomika sovremennoi Rossii, 1(92), 7-14 (in Russian, with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2021-1(92)-7-14
Trifonov, N. (2021b). Income approach for real estate valuation. European Real Estate Society conference, Technical University. Kaiserslautern, Germany.
Trifonov, N. (2023). Country risk premium as an indicator of investment attractiveness (Case of Republic of Belarus)]. Obstshestvo i ekonomika, 8, 112–116 (in Russian, with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.31857/S020736760025391-9
Trifonov, N. (2025a). Build-up method for capitalization rate: revisited. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 30(2), 200–211. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-04-2023-0016
Trifonov, N. (2025b). Expert on investment attractiveness and country risk. Realting. https://realting.com/news/expert-on-investment-attractiveness-and-country-risk
UBS Group AG. (2024). UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. https://www.ubs.com›global/ubs-global-real-estate-bubble-index-2024.pdf

